Tea Party remains political force but poses risks for GOP
By Larry Peterson
Created 2011-04-23
912-652-0367
When Marolyn Overton helped set up the first Savannah Tea Party rally in 2009, she didn't know what to expect."We thought we might get 50 people, maybe 100," said Overton, co-organizer of the anti-tax group. But it was tax deadline day and anger seethed against President Barack Obama's trillion-dollar health proposal. Nearly 1,500 people - many miffed at a system they said plays them for patsies - showed up. Crowds rallied at similar events across the country."People were saying, 'I thought I was the only one,'" Overton said. "We gave the silent majority a voice. "Since then, Savannah-area crowds have shrunk, in part, said local co-organizer Jeanne Seaver, because there are more tea party groups in more communities.The movement also faced mostly unfounded claims of racism and wavered before focusing more or less steadily on fiscal issues.But its political momentum surged. Across the country, the loose coalition of groups helped fuel a backlash that swept Republicans into office at almost every level last year. And it beefed up GOP-led efforts in Washington, D.C., and Atlanta to hold the line on government spending and taxes. Although few members like what Obama proposed last week, Seaver noted with approval that "even the president is talking about cutting spending." But some observers question the movement's staying power and say it may prod Republican candidates to take extreme stands voters will reject.
Ballot-box impact
University of Georgia political scientist Charles Bullock said the partiers played a big role in the 2010 election."The enthusiasm they generated boosted turnout among people likely to vote Republican," Bullock said. Of the 52 GOP U.S. House candidates who ousted Democratic incumbents, he said, 33 had tea party ties. In Georgia, tea party ally Tom Graves replaced fellow Republican Nathan Deal, who was elected governor.Tea party support also helped elect new U.S. senators in Florida, Kentucky and Utah, Bullock said.And dozens of Georgia legislators won with varying degrees of tea party support.Although some tea party candidates lost in primaries, they may have pushed some GOP nominees to take more conservative stands, Bullock said.Tea party political muscle has nudged ongoing tugs of war over spending and taxes in Washington and Atlanta. "The tea party folks are driving both parties to make spending reduction a priority," said U.S. Rep. Jack Kingston, a Savannah Republican. Kingston said Republicans didn't get everything they wanted in a recent budget deal with the Democrats that averted a partial government shutdown."But we got a lot more than we would have if the tea party people weren't involved," he said. Bullock agrees."They've moved the needle to the right," he said. "They've changed the debate from cut versus no-cut to what to cut and how deeply."Rep. John Barrow also said the tea party has influenced the budget process."As someone who's been fighting for years to restore fiscal discipline to the nation's finances," the Savannah Democrat said, "I appreciate the passion they bring to the process."
Role in Atlanta
The tea party looms large at the state capitol, too. "Absolutely, they have been a major voice all year long," said Rep. Ron Stephens, R-Savannah, "They have been a driving force. ... It changes the perceptions of the major players. They know they're being watched." Stephens, chairman of the House Economic Development and Tourism Committee, said they helped stall a fiscal reform plan that included tax hikes. Stephens said it also helped make sure his proposal to raise cigarette taxes went nowhere fast."They put their foot down," he said.Kerwin Swint, professor of political science at Kennesaw State University, said the movement may have influenced Deal. After initially leaving the door open at least a crack to the cigarettes levy and tax reform proposals, Deal slammed it in late January.But Deal spokesman Brian Robinson said the tea party wasn't a factor. "The governor campaigned on not raising taxes and creating the right atmosphere for creating jobs," Robinson said. But he acknowledged that the movement did influence Deal on another issue. After it protested, Deal retreated from a proposal to plan a Georgia health insurance exchange under the new federal health care law. He backs a challenge to the 2010 legislation, but wants Georgians to have a voice in what happens if the challenge fails, Robinson said. "The impact of some grass-roots objections was that we slowed down the process," he said, adding that there is still "dialogue" on the issue. But Edward Chapman, a Washington, D.C., Democratic political consultant who has worked in Georgia, perceives another impact. "Giving in to the tea party lets ideology trump practicality," Chapman said. "If the state doesn't design its health insurance exchanges, the feds will do it. "The Georgia Tea Party Patriots, who were involved in the dispute, did not respond to a request for an interview.
Downside risks
Chapman questions the staying power of the movement and compares it to the one led by former presidential hopeful Ross Perot. The Perot boomlet peaked in 1992 and was fading fast by 1996. After a big splash in 2010, Chapman says, the tea partiers likely will have some clout next year, but will ebb by 2014.Insisting that their influence is "proportional to the unemployment rate," he said they'll fade even faster if the economy improves. "In 2008," he added, "Democrats mistook frustration with George W. Bush for approval of their agenda. In 2010, Republicans mistook frustration over the economy for approval of their agenda." Meanwhile, Bullock said, tea party groups may push the GOP so far to the right that it will lose in many parts of the country, he said.
That vulnerability surfaced last year, when Republicans lost Senate races in Nevada, Delaware and Colorado, he added. "Republican strategists," he said, "need to convince the tea party people to support the most conservative electable candidate, not merely the most conservative one. "Some won't want to. They look at compromise as a dirty word. But you've got to be able to compromise, or you lose some elections." But Kingston, who says compromises occur as coalitions are built at the legislative level, disagrees. "The tea party remains a force," he said. "Two years ago, they were dismissed as Astroturf Republicans. But they're not going away until the job's done."
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